A Risk Assessment Method of Multi-aircraft Interaction for Complex Airspace
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摘要: 为评估复杂交通场景下的多航空器的交互风险，由空中交通风险与势场理论的相似性，创新性地提出了“多航空器与空域环境的交互势场”概念。构造以航空器、空域点关键及航路为势场源的交互势场，并分别提出了航空器、空域关键点及航路交互势场的生成函数模型；构造随时间变化的历史航迹势场模型，提出考虑历史航迹的短期影响效应的交互势场修正方法；考虑航空器在水平与垂直维度的多场景安全间隔标准，求解满足安全间隔标准的交互势场生成函数参数；考虑多势场源的交互特征，提出了航空器、空域关键点及航路交互势场的融合机制。借鉴势场力与势能的转化关系，提出了基于势能的航空器交互风险指标RPE，从能量的角度，揭示了多航空器交互以及航空器与空域环境交互的风险变化过程。为验证评估方法的有效性，以国内某真实扇区为场景开展仿真实验，结果表明：①与其他风险表征指标相比，所提的交互风险指标RPE更接近于空中交通管制员感知到的风险指数；②在某些区间，RPE表现的更为灵敏，平均绝对误差为0.077，明显低于传统基于冲突时间的风险指数RATSR。综上，本文所提出的交互风险评估方法有望为未来空中复杂交通场景的风险管理提供更加精确的决策支撑。Abstract: To assess the interaction risks among multiple aircraft in complex traffic scenarios, a concept of "interac-tion potential fields of multiple aircraft and airspace environment" is developed, which is based on the similarity be-tween traffic risk and potential field theory. The interaction potential fields (IPF) generated by aircraft, critical air-space points (CAPs) and air routes (ARs) are defined, respectively, and the generation functions of IPFs are formu-lated. Considering the short-term effects of historical trajectories on the aircraft, a time-varying historical trajectory IPF is added to the real-time aircraft IPFs; considering the requirement of safety intervals in horizontal and vertical dimensions for aircraft, the parameters of rule-compliant IPFs are found; then, a fusion method is developed to integrate IPFs generated by aircraft, CAPs and ARs. Inspired by the relationship between potential field force and poten-tial energy, a potential energy-based risk index is introduced, denoted as RPE, showing the changes of risk over time in multi-aircraft scenarios from the perspective of energy. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, a simulation based on a real airspace section is introduced, and the results show that: ① RPE is much closer to the precepted risk by the air traffic operators (RSE) compared with traditional risk indicators; ② RPE is more sensitive at certain intervals than the conflict time-based index RATSR, with a mean absolute error of 0.077. In brief, the pro-posed risk assessment method could offer more precise decision support for risk management in complex air traffic scenarios in the future.
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Key words:
- traffic safety /
- multi-aircraft interaction /
- potential field theory /
- risk assessment
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图 3 势场强度在速度方向上相对于距离的变化
Figure 3. Variation in potential field strength relative to distance in the velocity direction
图 7 势场强度随离空域关键点距离的变化
Figure 7. Variation in potential field strength relative to distance from the waypoint
图 8 航路生成的势场
Figure 8. Variation in potential field strength relative to distance from the route
图 9 势场强度随航路距离的变化
Figure 9. Variation in potential field strength relative to distance from the route
图 10 多航空器、空域关键点、航路势场交互
Figure 10. Variation in potential field strength relative to distance from the route
图 13 管制扇区结构和面向扇区的雷达监视仿真
Figure 13. Control sector structure and Sector-oriented radar surveillance simulation
图 15 航空器RSE风险和RPE风险的混淆矩阵
Figure 15. Confusion matrix of aircraft RSE risk and RPE risk
图 16 航空器RSE风险和RATSR风险的混淆矩阵
Figure 16. Confusion matrix of aircraft RSE risk and RATSR risk
图 17 风险系数随扇区流量、与空域关键点距离的变化趋势
Figure 17. Trend of RPE changes with sector volume and distance from waypoint
表 1 扇区交通流仿真
Table 1. Sector traffic flow simulation
航路段 参数 长度/km 方向角/(°) 交通量/（架/h） 流入量/（架/h） 流出量/（架/h） 重型飞机比例 B213 186 187 5.8 3.1 2.7 0.19 A581 245 218 3.3 1.5 1.8 0.11 I248 162 250 3.1 1.6 1.5 0.14 I793 108 294 4.6 2.1 2.5 0.16 A461 56 62 2.6 1.1 1.5 0.08 R343 57 76 3.2 1.4 1.8 0.11 
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表 2 航空器风险评估结果对比
Table 2. Comparison of aircraft risk assessment results
航空器编号 RPE RATSR RSEm Error_PE Error_ATSR F1001 15.43 0.52 1.50 0.09 0.22 F1002 25.58 0.86 3.50 －0.06 0.16 F1003 18.72 0.61 2.50 －0.03 0.11 F1017 33.62 0.83 4.50 －0.06 －0.07 F1018 31.75 0.82 3.50 0.09 0.12 F1019 25.21 0.63 2.50 0.13 0.13 F1020 7.34 0.25 0.50 0.08 0.15 F1055 9.43 0.21 1.50 －0.06 －0.09 F1056 22.56 0.73 2.50 0.06 0.23 F1057 24.28 0.82 3.50 －0.09 0.12 F1058 31.96 0.83 4.50 －0.10 －0.07 F1059 3.38 0.24 0.50 －0.02 0.14 F1060 24.86 0.76 3.50 －0.08 0.06 F1109 15.28 0.71 2.50 －0.12 0.21 F1110 14.53 0.44 1.50 0.06 0.14 F1111 24.63 0.82 3.50 －0.08 0.12 F1112 38.97 0.84 4.50 0.07 －0.06 F1113 10.69 0.45 1.50 －0.03 0.15 F1114 33.22 0.83 3.50 0.13 0.13 均值 21.65 0.64 2.71 0.077 0.131
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